Platform-as-a-service differs from IaaS. IBM’s Ric Telford predicts what we’ll see because it matures in the course of the next two years.

More than two years ago I wrote the blog post “PaaS Comes Of Age,” where I posited we were entering a platform-as-a-service era — one by which platform services would become the critical cloud capability for enterprises. a whole lot has happened since I wrote that post, and now we’re seeing this “coming of age” story continue into maturity.

For the uninitiated, PaaS could be considered a delivery model for functionality you traditionally go along with middleware. Not so coincidently, it also sits inside the “middle” of the cloud stack, between infrastructure-as-a-service and software-as-a-service. PaaS can deliver any combination of application “development” and “runtime” services from the cloud, in some sort of measured model (subscription, pay-as-you-go, etc).

Today there are quite a number of PaaS services, such a lot of that it’s hard to maintain them straight. Many companies have converged in this space, arising from the IaaS layer (Amazon’s Relational Database Service or Elastic Beanstalk), down from the SaaS layer (Salesforce’s Force.com), and even as a brand new corporate initiative (Google AppEngine or Microsoft Azure). Moreover, there are a lot “pure play” PaaS offerings (like EngineYard) and a complete slew of startups.

One aspect to look at carefully inside the PaaS space is the role of open standards and open source. Unlike IaaS, where Amazon has become just a little a de facto standard, PaaS might be more de jure — built on a collection of open standards. IBM just announced BlueMix and a $1 billion commitment to PaaS capabilities. Key to this announcement was the support of Cloud Foundry, an open-source platform layer for the cloud. Started by VMware and spun off as element of Pivotal, Cloud Foundry already has around 40 corporate contributors. To not be outdone, RedHat’s OpenShift initiative can be in response to open source and likewise has a stable of active contributors.

[Want more on Pivotal’s latest moves? Read Pivotal Brings In-Memory Analysis To Hadoop.]

It shall be interesting to determine what the longer term holds for PaaS. If it tracks with similar technology shifts in IT history, listed here are some things to imagine.

• Companies should become happy with the idea before they standardize on a PaaS. We’re still within the tire-kicking stage in most enterprises, which would like to see the price in PaaS before starting any serious shift off traditional middleware. This is able to imply a year or two before real PaaS growth. But, very similar to the shift from client/server applications to Internet-based applications, when the shift starts it would ramp quickly.

• Open systems will coexist with proprietary. Very like Java and .Net, there’ll be followers of every.

• Developers will decide. Think early days of Microsoft or today’s Android. The PaaS vendors which are most successful in courting and keeping software developers will rise to the end. Do not be surprised in case you start seeing some “PaaS-justifying applications” — compelling SaaS offerings that run only on a specific vendor’s PaaS. (For the gamers on the market, an analogy is Titanfall for Xbox One.)

• Consolidation will occur, but not as much within the PaaS market as in IaaS. Some believe that IaaS vendors could consolidate right down to as few as six major ones.

• If you examine today’s analogue — the server and storage business — this seems about right. But PaaS is a wider set of capabilities, and one where ecosystems can develop around standards (very similar to the Java community today), but still have room for a bigger field of competitors.

I will check back in two more years and spot if these predictions prove to be accurate.

Please post your comments below. You may also follow me on Twitter @rictelford as I track most of the happenings on earth of cloud, or look me up on LinkedIn.

Private clouds are moving rapidly from concept to production. But some fears about expertise and integration still linger. Also within the Private Clouds Step Up issue of InformationWeek: The general public cloud and the steam engine have more in common than you could think. (Free registration required.)

Ric Telford is VP of IT Services Strategy and Cloud at IBM. His career highlights 30 years of software development, IT service delivery and business strategy.  Ric has not just developed systems but additionally delivered them.  He was involved with cloud for the last … View Full Bio

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